A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
